The Long Game…
As of this writing the Donald Trump second impeachment trial is about to wrap up. The house managers have done an excellent job of presenting a compelling case for incitement that culminated in the Jan 6th storming of the Capitol building. Some media outlets are writing about how the defense team has a lot to overcome given the strength of the manager’s presented case. If this were a criminal proceeding with a jury of average Americans, a different set of rules would apply. But it’s not, it’s an impeachment trial. The votes aren’t there to convict. The defense team could stand up today and simply rest their case and an acquittal would be handed down.
In this writer’s opinion, the only purpose of any modern day impeachment trial would be for political theatre. Of course there could be some theoretical case where a president might do something so egregious that both sides of the aisle are in full agreement on impeachment. Anything short of that, however, and you’ve got political theatre.
The senators take an oath to be impartial. They sign a book agreeing to be impartial. The reality is that no such impartiality exists, in mass, and there’s no penalty if there isn’t. Some are still hiding behind the argument it’s unconstitutional in this case. The Senate voted on that question and it was ruled constitutional based on the vote. A reasonable person would then assume that jurisdiction was then decided and impartiality in the trial would exist. Not remotely. These are politicians in a proceeding that they know full well they don’t have to follow the rules. Some have asked, rightly so, then what’s the point? It’s a waste of time and money. Fair point, for some.
The other side of the coin is the long game for the Democrats.
This impeachment trial forces the issue of having all the evidence of what lead up to and transpired on Jan 6th put into the official record. It puts it in the record in a way that fits the democrat’s narrative. It also forces all sitting Republican senators to vote on this issue. This also establishes their record of where they stand for support of Trump. Regardless of the legal arguments, any average citizens will view a vote to acquit as support of Trump. That’s just human nature.
One key element of all this that has yet to be discussed in the mainstream media is what this trial also provides to future democratic campaigns. LOTS of material for political ads against GOP opponents. Especially ones who voted to acquit Trump.
This is all a big gamble for today’s Trump supporters and detractors. The supporters are hedging for his continued positive influence in the political arena, and obviously the detractors are hedging just the opposite.
Either way, the Democrats will have plenty of pre-manufactured campaign materials to throw at any Republican supporting Trump.
The GOP still has a lot to figure out within it’s own party. There are murmurings of a new more Center / Right conservative party forming. Clearly, we’re along way from seeing that play out, but the signals are clear. The far right movement of the GOP isn’t winning over the masses in the party. Several people have said that if the impeachment vote was a private vote, Trump would be convicted handily. This means one simple thing. They’re afraid of whatever political clout he might still have. Once the day comes that it’s clear he doesn’t have any, they’ll forget they ever knew him.
It’s going to be very interesting watching the long game play out. Stay tuned… it’s going to be wild.